With Donald Trump’s rise in the polls over the past few weeks, his focus on policy and lack of any major mistakes the media pundits are starting to feel a bit nervous about this year’s election.
Josh Barro, over at the Business Insider, wrote an editorial yesterday titled, “My gut worry about the polling shift toward Donald Trump“. In it, he remarks as to why Trump has seen a recent rise in the polls, and Hillary Clinton’s recent weaknesses, but what really keeps him up at night is that Trump is getting “better”.
The polls have moved markedly in Donald Trump’s favor of the last month. And now everybody who doesn’t want him to be president is trying to figure out why — and whether he’s going to keep gaining.
Obviously, it’s been a rough few weeks for Hillary Clinton, and most of the poll analysis has focused on how she has hurt herself and what she can do to improve her position.
But here’s the thought that’s making me nervous: What if the shift in the polls is more about Donald Trump campaigning better?
For example, Trump has resisted the temptation to talk extensively about Clinton’s pneumonia, instead staying focused on the “basket of deplorables” comment that he and his team clearly believe works to his advantage. He has gotten more attention for his positive policy messages. He even pulled off a non-embarrassing meeting with the president of Mexico.
The writer sounds surprised that someone like Trump, who has built a billion dollar business empire and prides himself on hiring the perfect people for each job, can possibly be able to turn his campaign around to improve his poll numbers.
He continues, noting Trump’s increased discipline on the campaign trail, choosing to stay focus on Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” comment than her health condition, which is working to his advantage.
Josh Barro also admits that there is a growing disconnect between the mainstream media and political elite in regards to race issues in this election, specifically with white voters. Typical of Democrats to divide voters along racial lines, or any citizens for that matter, but he also makes to sure to throw some “white privilege” into the mix for good measure.
I think Trump is benefiting from a growing disconnect between media and political elites in New York and Washington and most white voters over issues of race.
I think this disconnect is arising mostly from a substantively laudable place: a greater focus on white privilege and an accurate sense that aggrieved whites are often upset about declining racial privilege, which is not good cause for sympathy.
But I worry this normative judgment is bleeding into a positive one, causing some Democrats and some media commentators to underestimate, for example, how much a claim that half of Trump voters are “deplorable” bigots is likely to upset white voters who are strongly resistant to the idea their friends and family — or themselves — are racist.
Barro states that the media has underestimated the “grievances” of whites, placing the cause of their anger on “declining racial privilege“, and points out that is not a good cause for sympathy. So should whites rejoice in their constant demonization in the media, white privilege branding by the left and claims that they all have inherent racism no matter what?
For many in the left wing media and politics, whenever there is a certain sub-section of society upset with the government, economy or social factors they immediately jump to the conclusion that it must be race related in some manner. It is unthinkable for them to consider that voters of all races have legitimate issues with our ruling class, regardless of the political party they belong to, and see the destructive path that our country has been set upon. Naturally, concerned voters are going to turn to the candidate that is as far outside the political power structure as possible, and that candidate this year is Donald Trump. He represents the “anti-establishment”, and a perceived cure to bureaucratic corruption that plagues our systems of government.
Also, according to this author, “If Trump gets enough votes from whites, he can win the election.”
So the only plausible path to victory for Donald Trump, in the eyes of this political columnist, is if enough “privileged” white voters come out to vote for him. It must be unthinkable to imagine that Trump actually has greater support at this time from the African-American and Latino voters than either Romney or McCain managed to get in 2012 or 2008, according to the recent LA Times national poll.
To sum up his column, Josh Barro admits that he is “more nervous” than he has been at any other point in this election that Donald Trump may actually win.
Finally, we are in uncharted territory in the sense that one major party campaign is likely to have a far more developed ground game for Election Day than the other. I would expect this to help Clinton outperform her baseline, but I have no idea if the effect is large or small.
The question Business Insider global editor-in-chief Henry Blodget keeps asking me is whether Trump is likely to win. I still think the answer is “no.” But honestly, I’m a lot more nervous than I’ve been during the campaign.
If you were nervous yesterday Josh, then the most recent LA Times national poll might just send you into cardiac arrest:
So within Josh’s liberal bubble of fellow journalists, the answer to the question of if Trump can win the election is still a resounding “no”, despite his ability to overcome all odds, prove political experts wrong and make drastic improvements in the polls over a very short period of time.
Given the fact that Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have taken a nose dive in the past week, with her “basket of deplorables” statement along with her questionable health, I’d agree with Josh that Trump’s chances of winning look better now than ever before.
Yet, this isn’t a reason to be nervous unless you are tied into the corrupt corporate/government machine that is ruled by bribery, blackmail and deceit. If you are an average every day citizen who is sick of seeing their country’s founding principles dissolved and our middle class being destroyed by globalists, then the chance of Donald Trump winning this election should give you hope.