Alan Abramowitz’s “Crystal Ball” model has accurately predicted the popular vote in each presidential election since 1988, and this year it is predicting a Trump win over Clinton, 51.4% to 48.6%.
Although this model predicts a Donald Trump win in the popular vote, it also predicts a staggering landslide win for Hillary Clinton in the electoral college vote. The statisticians at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics admit that this election year has shattered their predictions for the Republican primary race, and that this is anything put a typical year for politics. However, they state that based on Trump’s high unfavorability ratings, although they also admit that Clinton’s are nearly just as high, that he will not be able to turn the swing states in the Republican’s favor this November.
In fact, they predict that EVERY swing state will inevitably vote in favor of Hillary Clinton this year, even Florida and North Carolina.
This has not been a kind year for political pundits, experts and pollsters, however, as they all entirely missed the mark when it came to Trump’s victory in the primaries. Judging by how often these statisticians were wrong this year, it would be logical to assume that they are also incorrect regarding the presidential election winner as well.
After all, if Hillary is so popular, than why is Donald Trump the one filling stadiums with tens of thousands of supporters, while Clinton can barely muster a few hundred?
Donald Trump has been famous this year for shattering records as well as long standing traditions and prediction models. Will he triumph yet again and shatter Alan Abramowitz’s “Crystal Ball” model?
The Washington Examiner reports:
Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.
However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.
“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.
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