In addition to the Rasmussen poll showing Trump up by 7 points (44% to 37%) ahead of Hillary Clinton, a CBS/NYT poll has just been released showing them tied. Why this is significant is because we know the NYT, along with most major media outlets, show a liberal bias in their polling standards, often times oversampling Democrats to portray Hillary as a stronger candidate than she actually is.
If the NYT is actually reporting that Trump and Clinton are tied, you can bet that Trump’s chances are getting better every day at winning this race.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 14, 2016
Perhaps the most important polls to come out this week show Trump leading in several of the main swing states so far. There’s no doubt about it, this election will come down to a handful of swing states determining who wins the presidency.
CBS news gives a very lengthy explanation and analysis of these poll numbers in their article.
CBS News reports:
The State of the Race
Heading into the two parties’ conventions, the race for President is a dead heat, a change from last month when Hillary Clinton led by six points. Forty percent of registered voters now say they will back Clinton (a dip of three points), while 40 percent will vote for Trump (a bump up of three points). A month ago, Clinton led Trump 43 to 37 percent.
Most registered voters say they have made up their minds about who to support: 90 percent of Trump voters and 88 percent of Clinton voters say their choice is set. About one in 10 of each’s candidates’ supporter say their minds might change before the election.
The race looks essentially the same in a three-way contest when Libertarian candidate Governor Gary Johnson is added to the mix. He gets 12 percent of the vote, but Clinton and Trump remain tied, with 36 percent each.
While Clinton was not indicted for matters relating to her use of a private email account and server for her work as Secretary of State, she washarshly criticized by the FBI director, and her standing on some key candidate qualities has taken a bit of a hit.
Sixty-seven percent of voters now say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, up from 62 percent last month and the highest percentage this election cycle. Only 28 percent view her as honest. Clinton’s ratings on honesty were more positive soon after she announced her presidential bid in April of last year. Also, fewer now say she is prepared for the job of president than did so last month – although half still say she is.
Although Clinton receives lower marks on these attributes compared to last month, views of Trump have not improved on these measures and remain mostly negative. Sixty-two percent of voters don’t think he’s honest (compared to Clinton’s 67 percent), and two-thirds continue to say Trump is not prepared for the job of president, compared to 48 percent who say that about Clinton.
On the email matter specifically, most voters think Clinton did something wrong when she set up a personal email address and server for work while she was Secretary of State, including 46 percent who think what she did was illegal, up slightly from 41 percent last month.
There are partisan differences. Most Republicans (78 percent) and half of independents think what Clinton did was illegal. Among Democrats, 43 percent say she did nothing wrong, and another 35 percent said she did something improper but not illegal. Few Democrats think she broke the law.
Voters are divided on whether the FBI investigation into the email matter was fair. Forty-eight percent express at least some confidence that the investigation was independent and impartial, while 47 percent have little or no confidence. Most Republicans and a slim majority of independents don’t think the investigation was impartial, while most Democrats think it was.
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