Iowa may have been “Cruz country” when they were the first state to vote in the primaries this year, but Trump’s coalitions director says the Hawkeye state is now in play for Trump in November.
In an interview with Breitbart, talk show host Jamie Johnson says that he can measure the level of Trump’s support in Iowa by the amount of yard/barn signs that have been popping up all over the state in recent weeks.
Johnson, who joined the Trump campaign July 26, said Iowa is “a yard sign state” and as he drives around the state, he sees Trump yard signs everywhere.
“Ninety of its 99 counties basically rely on yard signs, or barn signs, they are called barn signs, they are 4-by-8, they used to be plywood, but they are polythene,” he said.
Watching how many signs a campaign has up on yards and barns is the most accurate indicator of its success, he said.
Although Barack Obama did very well in Iowa during the 2008/2012 election years, Johnson says that Iowa voters love a political “outsider”. Signs for Hillary Clinton are few and far between in Iowa this year, mostly visible only in the large urban areas, and Donald Trump is dominating signs in 90 of the 99 counties in the state.
Jamie Johnson also used a program that collects social media data from posts by voters in Iowa, and measures the positive/negative mentions of a candidate.
In addition to the yard and barn sign metrics, Johnson said he has access to the most advanced social media monitoring program, which allows him to read the pulse of the Hawkeye State by measuring the number and tone of posts on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and other social media platforms for everyone in the state. These reports have told him that for the last month, not only are more people talking about Trump, but the talk is very positive–and it is also reflected in the calls he gets on his radio show.
“The mentions on social media are something like 7-to-1 in favor Trump over Hillary, and the negatives on Hillary are 2-to-1 and the positives on Trump are 3-to-1,” he said.
If yard signs, rally attendance and general voter enthusiasm can be an indicator for who is going to win the presidential election this year, then Donald Trump clearly has the advantage.
The question is, however, is despite the yard signs and excitement among Trump voters this year, will they be outnumbered by the urban voters who lean Democrat? Although Clinton supporters may not have the level of enthusiasm as Trump’s, and subsequently don’t bother putting out signs for her campaign, there are still plenty of them out there willing to vote for her.
There’s not doubt that Trump’s campaign has the monopoly on “high energy” this year, but he will need a large amount of Democrats to come out and vote for him as well.
Results during the primaries have been promising for Trump, with many areas of swing states such as Pennsylvania seeing record numbers of Democrats switch to the Republican party in order to vote, and if this trend continues then Clinton may see her lead in the polls continue to diminish.