Donald Trump’s new campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said in an interview today that Trump is performing much better in polls than the mainstream media is reporting.
During an interview with UK’s Channel 4, Conway was asked asked about recent poll numbers showing Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton in key swing states, as well as nationally. She brought up an interesting point, and one that many Donald Trump supporters have been suggesting for some time, and that is the vast difference between online polling and human interaction polls.
Kellyanne Conway stated that their campaign’s internal polling is confidential, but she did say that polling is very unique to Donald Trump. “Donald Trump performs consistently better in online polling where a human being is not talking to another human being about what he or she may do in elections,” she explained.
She claimed that the difference is in part due to it not being “socially desirable” to admit to a stranger that you’re a Trump supporter, and the “hidden Trump vote” is a very significant factor.
The interviewer admitted that the pollsters got it “spectacularly wrong” when it came to the Brexit results, and asked Conway if she thought something similar to that could happen in the US election.
Yes, everybody who was looking at this calmly and objectively thinks that … I think if the elites – what I call the wrist-flickers – are just dismissing that – oh Donald Trump can never be president, oh Brexit is so – it’s just for these unwashed rubes, these hillbillies with no teeth and long hair. I mean that’s just unfair.”
Finally, Kellyanne Conway concluded this topic by saying the Trump campaign is performing a project called, “undercover Trump voter”, stating that this phenomenon is real , and if you talk to people around the country you will see it’s real as well.
Although mainstream media pundits and pollsters will likely scoff at this notion, let’s not remember what the owner of the highly praised statistical website Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver, said about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the primary:
“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.,”
– Nate Silver, July 16th, 2015.
“The lesson … is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination,” Silver wrote. He pegged Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 2 percent, and laid out the so-called “six stages of doom” for his campaign.
– Nate Silver, Aug 6th, 2015.
Nate Silver certainly wasn’t alone in doubting Trump’s chances of ever becoming the Republican party’s presidential candidate, and every single one was proved wrong.
It’s certainly not too far fetched to peg the current mainstream polls showing enormous Hillary Clinton leads as unreliable, since this election has broken historic records that no one could have predicted.
Donald Trump also has the advantage of the first-time and disenfranchised voters, who would not be included in standard polls because the pollsters typically only reach out to “likely voters.” Likely voters are classified as those who have voted within the past two election cycles.
In fact, back in November of 2015, a 92 year old woman who had never voted in her life, came out to a Trump rally to tell him that she will be casting her first vote for him in the upcoming election.
Millions of American’s who have had no past interest in politics, or felt that no candidate has ever spoken for their concerns, have come out in force to rally behind Donald Trump this year. If enough of them cast their votes on November 8th, the pundits could be proved terribly wrong once again.
The political pundits and pollsters would have to throw out every algorithm they’ve ever constructed for presidential polling if Donald Trump were to win this year, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing at all.
The full Kellyanne Conway interview can be viewed here.