This election year has not been kind to political pollsters, as Donald Trump has proven just about every one of them to be wrong in their predictions, but the latest irony tops them all.
First, professional pollsters Frank Luntz sends out a tweet on October 30th which implies that Trump has the same chances of winning the presidential election as the Cubs do to win the World Series, which according to the mainstream polls, the chances of that happening were not very good at all.
Frank Luntz references a story by “progressive” pollster Nate Silver of 538, who prior to this year prided himself in using accurate prediction models for elections. Nate Silver’s article was titled “The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does“. While the so-called polling “experts” all expected the Cubs to lose the World Series, giving them a chance of only 15% to win, the Cubs did in fact mount a comeback to win last night, after 108 years of waiting.
It will be hard for the Cubs to come back from this 3-1 deficit. As the Cavaliers taught us earlier this year, a 3-1 lead isn’t insurmountable, but Elo rates the Cubs’ the total chance of winning the Series at a measly 15 percent. (That’s a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model currently gives Donald Trump to win the White House.) But if Chicago is going to have any chance of a Series win, they’ll have to awaken their bats in Sunday’s game.
So, pollsters say Cubs can’t win…they do. Pollsters say Donald Trump can’t win…he certainly appears to be on track in the polls over the past week.
This has been the year for underdogs, comeback kids and surprise last minute victories. All good omens for Donald Trump as we approach and election that pollsters say he would never even be a candidate in, let alone having a chance of winning. Considering how wrong the pollsters have been this year about Trump, I would be willing to bet on the opposite of whatever they are claiming will happen.
The wisest move any pollster could make this year, is to admit that Donald Trump’s movement does not fit into any prediction model, that we are in uncharted territory and there is no way to call the outcome of this election.
Perhaps this upset by the Cubs winning the World Series prompted Nate Silver to start to lose his mind, as he sent out the following rambling tweet:
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2016
So what you’re saying Nate, is that a Cubs win equals a Trump victory on November 8th? If so, that’s the most accurate prediction you’ve made in quite a while.