Despite the mainstream media spinning the narrative that Hillary Clinton won the debate on Sunday, and their pushing of the Donald Trump “locker room talk” tape, it seems the presidential race is still neck and neck.
Rasmussen’s White House Watch poll released today shows that in a national telephone and online survey, Trump comes in at 43% with likely voters while Clinton came in at 41%. The survey included 1,500 likely voters was conducted on October 10-12, 2016. Note that the majority of these polls are always using “likely voters” for their base results. Likely voters typically include people who have voted within the past 2 elections. However, this year Trump has seen tremendous support from first-time and non-regular voters who have come out in droves to show their support for him.
The polls will not reflect any surge in new voters this year, which are likely to favor Donald Trump since set a record earlier this year with most Republican primary votes every. Although the typical presidential polling methods would be largely accurate in any other election year, this season has proven to be anything but typical. If the polls show Trump with a slight lead going into election day, the reality after new voters are counted could turn into a Trump landslide.
The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton.
The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.
Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. Monday’s survey was the first following the release of an 11-year-old video showing Trump discussing women in graphic sexual detail but did not include any polling results taken after the debate. All three nights of the latest survey follow Sunday’s debate.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has dropped slightly to six percent (6%) support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) still like some other candidate in the race, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%).
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-12, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Most Republican voters still think top GOP leaders are hurting the party with their continuing criticism of Trump and are only slightly more convinced that those leaders want Trump to be president.
Trump has 75% support among Republicans, nearly identical to Clinton’s 76% backing among Democrats. He has 15% of the Democratic vote; she picks up 13% GOP support. Trump holds a double-digit advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Johnson gets 13% of the unaffiliated vote, but like Stein is in low single digits among Democrats and Republicans.
Clinton continues to lead among women, while Trump has regained his advantage among men. Those under 40 still prefer the Democrat but also remain the most undecided. Older voters favor Trump. The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to be certain of their vote.
Trump remains ahead among whites and has a slight lead among other minority voters. He appears to be making a dent in the black vote, but blacks still overwhelmingly favor Clinton.