Emerson College has released results of their recent presidential polling efforts in New England, and the results are as you would expect from a heavily Democratic area, yet Clinton is not leading Trump by the margins that Obama lead Romney in 2012.
Donald Trump is particularly close to Hillary in the state of Rhode Island, where he trails her by only 3 points, within the margin or error.
The Emerson report notes that Obama had a significantly larger lead against Romney, and with Trump’s recent increase in polls across the country, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for him to take a few New England states.
Compared to President Obama’s state-level margins of victory in the 2012 general election, Clinton’s advantage is notably smaller in several states. Where Obama beat Mitt Romney in Massachusetts by 24 points, Clinton currently leads Trump by 17. Obama won Vermont by 36 points; she leads Trump by 21. She holds a slender 3-point edge in Rhode Island, which Obama won by 28 points.
Trump also leads Clinton by a significant margin among Independents, where he is taking 48% versus Clinton’s 28%.
This election could come out very close in the electoral college votes, and even though these states represent only a small portion of the entire electorate, and extra handful of votes could make all the difference for Trump in November.