The past month has been rough for Donald Trump in most of the mainstream polls, as the media launched and all out offensive attacking Trump for every phrase he uttered that could possibly be twisted into something negative.
Supporters have remained committed throughout these difficult polling times, and the media frenzy pushing out stories claiming Trump’s campaign is in ‘meltdown’ and that his withdrawal from the race is ‘imminent” have proven to be false.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is gaining back lost ground against Hillary Clinton, and now stands within a 2 point range of her in the latest Rasmussen poll. With Trump at 39% and Clinton at 41%, the next few weeks could determine if he can overtake her.
Although it’s only mid-August, and we haven’t even had the first presidential debate yet, some voters still take these polls as gospel, believing whatever the results are at any given moment will predict the outcome in November.
This election year has been anything but predictable, and although polls this early may have indicated reliable outcomes in the past cycles, we have seen Trump achieve the impossible this year. On one hand we have a candidate who is unpredictable, willing to take chances and break typical political dogma. On the other we have a highly flawed, dishonest candidate whose health is now in question.
Anything can happen with two candidates such as these competing for the presidency.
White House Watch: Clinton 41%, Trump 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continues to tighten as it moves further from the conventions, but both candidates are still struggling to close the deal.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 41% support to Trump’s 39%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up nine percent (9%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with three percent (3%). Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump has been steadily losing ground since mid-July when his support peaked at 44%, while this is the second week in a row that Clinton’s support has fallen from an identical 44% just after the Democratic National Convention. Clinton held a 43% to 40% edge over Trump last week.
Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (77%) than Trump does in his (69%), but support is down from last week in both parties. Trump still leads Clinton 38% to 29% among voters not affiliated with either major party.
Johnson has 11% GOP support, four percent (4%) of the Democratic vote and 12% of unaffiliated voters. Stein’s support among Republicans is at a statistical zero, and she picks up just one percent (1%) support from Democrats and eight percent (8%) from unaffiliateds.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 15-16, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Both Clinton and Trump continue to have a trust problem among voters.
Clinton now holds just a 43% to 39% edge over Trump among women. The race is even closer among men: 40% support Clinton, while 39% back Trump.
Voters under 40 give a narrow 39% to 35% edge to Clinton. The top two candidates are neck-and-neck among older voters. Johnson continues to poll best among voters under 40.
Black voters still overwhelmingly favor Clinton, while Trump holds a five-point lead among white voters. Other minority voters are evenly divided.
Most voters think the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race, and supporters of Trump strongly believe the coverage of his public comments is a classic example. Most Clinton supporters say Trump’s just a sloppy speaker.
Following news reports that federal investigators are taking a deeper look at the charitable foundation established by Bill and Hillary Clinton, voters are even more suspicious that Hillary Clinton traded favors to donors while she was secretary of State.
Republicans are again asking questions about Clinton’s health, while Democrats continue to insist that Trump release his tax returns. Most voters still believe major White House hopefuls should make public recent tax returns, but now most also think they should release their medical records, too.
Most voters share a favorable opinion of the National Rifle Association, but the NRA’s endorsement of Trump is more important to Democrats than to other voters.
Voters are more eager to vote this year than they have been in past elections.