In CNN is reporting this much of a lead for Trump after the RNC, you know results are largely in his favor. As much as the media tried to frame Donald Trump’s speech at the convention as “dark” and “angry,” it seems a large percentage of the voter base had a different idea.
Trump gained the lead on Clinton in a 4-way matchup, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, beating her 44% to 39%. In a head-to-head match with Clinton, Trump comes in at 48%-45%, +3.
Another beneficial result from the CNN poll for Trump, is it seems his favorability has also increased post-convention, with 46% of registered voters say they have a positive view, up from 39% pre-convention
Melania Trump’s favorability rating took a huge bounce, increasing by 16 points, along with VP pick Mike Pence seeing a 13 point boost.
Two prominent convention speakers saw their stock rise post-convention as well. Favorability ratings for Trump’s wife, Melania, climbed from 27% pre-convention to 43% post-convention, despite news that her Monday night speech contained passages lifted from Michelle Obama’s 2008 Democratic convention speech. Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence, whose Wednesday speaking slot was largely overshadowed following Ted Cruz’s defiant stand on the convention stage, also bolstered the electorate’s impression of him, landing at a 39% favorable rating overall, up from 26% pre-convention.
One of the most ironic results of this polling comes for Ted Cruz, who was blasted by supporters for not endorsing Donald Trump during his speech as the convention.
Cruz’s move, however, appears to have backfired. While 60% of Republican voters had a positive impression of the former presidential candidate before the convention, just 33% have one now.
So almost everyone in the Trump camp comes out on top after the convention, but Ted Cruz stands alone in showing a drop in favorability by 27 points, almost half his previous ranking.
Ted Cruz should have known better than to roll the dice against Donald Trump, as literally everyone else in his party that has done so this year has seen their images shrink to obscurity. It remains to be seen if Ted Cruz will ever be able to mount a comeback when his Senate seat is up for reelection in 2018, and even if he does end up speaking for Trump before November, I doubt it would do any good. It’s like apologizing for something bad only because you caught and forced to for your own benefit, it just doesn’t have the same effect.
Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.National polls don’t have a large enough sample to accurately reflect the state of play in key battlegrounds, and there is little information thus far on how Trump’s convention performance has affected the presidential race state-by-state.
The new findings mark Trump’s best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump’s new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump’s convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.The poll also reflects a sharpening of the education divide among whites that has been prevalent throughout the campaign. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40% to 40% split to a 44% to 39% edge over Trump. That while Trump expanded his lead with white voters who do not hold a college degree from a 51% to 31% lead before the convention to a 62% to 23% lead now.Beyond boosting his overall support, Trump’s favorability rating is also on the rise (46% of registered voters say they have a positive view, up from 39% pre-convention), while his advantage over Clinton on handling top issues climbs. He now holds double-digit margins over Clinton as more trusted on the economy and terrorism. Trump also cut into Clinton’s edge on managing foreign policy (50% said they trusted her more, down from 57% pre-convention).The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image. A majority (52%) now say Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than personal gain, just 44% say the same about Clinton. He’s increased the share who call him honest and trustworthy (from 38% to 43%), and who would be proud to have him as president (from 32% to 39%). And nearly half now say he’s in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).Despite Democratic criticism of the Republican convention’s message as divisive, the percentage who say Trump will unite the country rather than divide it has increased to 42%, compared with 34% pre-convention.Clinton’s ratings on these same measures took a hit, though in most cases her drop-off was not quite as large as Trump’s gain. Perhaps most troubling for the Clinton supporters gathering in Philadelphia this week: 68% now say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, her worst rating on that measure in CNN/ORC polling.Those positives for Trump come despite some sharply negative reviews for the convention itself. Almost 6 in 10 (58%) said the Republican convention spent too much time attacking Democrats, and 18% called Trump’s speech “terrible,” the highest by far since CNN started began the question in 1996. Still, 40% called the speech excellent or good and about half of voters (45%) said Trump’s speech reflected the way they feel about things in the U.S. today; 48% said it did not reflect their views.Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook downplayed the CNN/ORC Poll Friday , which gives Trump an edge coming out of the Republican convention. He said Trump didn’t win over persuadable voters, but simply shored up his base.“It was just an angry mob,” Mook told reporters at a Bloomberg Politics breakfast in Philadelphia.A better measure, he said, will come when both conventions are over.
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